Climate Change study predicts hazy future for Ireland’s birds
Immediate action and a renewed investment in the natural environment are vital to protect birds across Europe and prevent extinctions.
BirdWatch Ireland welcomes the publication on 15th January 2008 of A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds. This Atlas, produced in association with BirdLife International, marks a major advance in understanding the potential impacts of climate change on wildlife. It shows that in the course of the 21st century the changing climatic conditions will force most species to move into new areas. For many of them this will prove difficult, and combined with other threats this will increase their risk of extinction in Europe.
The study, based on the use of “climate envelope modelling”, predicts that without vigorous and immediate action against climate change, the potential future range of the average European bird species will shift by nearly 550 km north-east by the end of this century and will reduce in size by a fifth compared to the current range. For some species, the potential future range does not overlap with the current range at all. Arctic and sub-Arctic birds, as well as some Iberian species, are projected to suffer the greatest potential range loss. Projected changes for some species found only in Europe, or with only small populations elsewhere, suggest that climate change is likely to increase their risk of extinction.
We may already be witnessing the beginnings of these changes here in Ireland. This winter has seen the well-publicised arrival in southern counties of the Cattle Egret, originally a bird of the Mediterranean region. Coming hot on the heels of the colonisation of Ireland’s wetlands by the closely-related Little Egret, an all-white heron once confined to southern Europe but now a familiar sight across the country, this would suggest that Ireland’s winters are now sufficiently mild that such warmth-loving species can now survive here.
The Climatic Atlas predicts a number of changes to Ireland’s bird life over the course of this century. According to the authors, Ireland may stand to lose iconic species such as Long-eared Owl, Red Grouse and Curlew forever, and future generations may become accustomed to an entirely new suite of species, such as Cetti’s Warbler, White Stork and the curiously-named Zitting Cisticola, a tiny brown bird of reedbeds and wetland vegetation.
The Climatic Atlas not only shows maps of the potential range of each species breeding in Europe at the end of this century, it also provides ways of responding to this challenge: most of all we need to protect and restore today’s wildlife, and secure healthy populations of birds within their current ranges. Central to this will be the strengthening of Natura 2000, the European network of protected areas. These sites must be better protected, managed and connected to provide a “backbone for biodiversity” and to accommodate the expected changes in distribution. At the same time, the landscape outside these areas must become more ‘permeable’ to species’ movements by providing stepping stones of high quality habitat and by more sustainable land-use policies.
Mr. Oran O’Sullivan, CEO of BirdWatch Ireland, concludes: “The Climatic Atlas proves once more the critical importance of the Natura 2000 network in Europe and the implementation of the EU Birds and Habitats Directives and other conservation measures in the wider countryside across the EU. This is a precondition for helping our wildlife to survive the impacts of climate change and for supporting the ecosystems on which we humans ourselves depend.”
Click to download a summary of the main findings of the atlas and examples of maps. (PDF: 579KB)